Gartner predicts worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011 and Android will command 38.5% of the smartphone market. By 2012, that rate will increase to 49.9%, but it will drop slightly to 48.8% by 2015. What’s interesting about these predictions is that they seem to underestimate Apple’s ability to determine what consumers actually want and implement a superior design in which to deliver it.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Apple will miraculously secure a majority position in the smartphone market in the next two years. But, what am I am saying is that the most innovative company in the world is successful because they make things people want. Apple products are the only products that you don’t mind when they break. Instead, you’re like, “Awwww…..damn. I’ll have to go get the next awesome generation of this thing I love.”
It’s always fascinating to me when I hear people tell me about all the things Android can do because it’s open source code. The Android partners, the biggest and best vendors in the mobile world – Samsung, Motorola, HTC, LG, Dell, and Sony-Ericsson – make devices in all shapes and sizes and in virtually every iteration you can imagine. That’s also part of the problem. People are like dogs. They like simple commands. Remember Wordstar? ^kd to bold a word?
Anyway, developers tell me, “you can do this, you can do this, and you can download this here and put music on this SD card and you can do this and copy this here and open it in this app.” But, I argue “just because I can doesn’t mean I want to.” Apple builds what people want: something they can personalize and change their wallpaper photo and put little pictures next to their contacts and upload photos to Facebook and search Twitter, and reserve a table at a restaurant and get directions. Consumers are simple, visual creatures with a need for the badge value the Apple logo delivers. The average consumer doesn’t view iTunes as an infringement on their civil liberties by restricting file sharing; he sees it as an organized format for downloading and listening to music that shows the album cover artwork. iTunes just plays whatever the file is: .mov, .avi, .mp3,. .mp4., and I don’t have to speak another language to use it. But, if I did, I could just toggle between the foreign language keyboards on my iPhone. That’s something I actually want to do.
